In this document, we model provincial inflation in China in the reform period. Particularly, we’re excited about the potential of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) to capture the inflation process at the provincial level. The research illustrates variations in inflation
We use business survey data collected by the People’s Bank of China for inflation forecasting. Some survey indicators lead to enhanced forecasting performance relative to the univariate benchmark model, especially for a period of moderate inflation. However, the estimated models do not
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